- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?2¢2%
Traders assign a 97.7% probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 because no official statements, military deployments, or policy shifts signal preparations for such action. Bilateral relations remain defined by the longstanding embargo, limited diplomatic engagement, and routine migration talks, with U.S. attention directed toward other priorities including alliances in Europe and Asia. Historical precedent since the 1960s further supports continuity over abrupt escalation. Even with this consensus, developments such as Cuba hosting advanced foreign military assets, major regional instability prompting direct intervention, or sudden executive policy changes could still prompt reassessment within the resolution window.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.