- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?38¢38%
- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?37¢37%
- Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa?37¢37%
- Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Maine?37¢37%
- Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio?37¢37%
- Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan?37¢37%
- Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Maine?37¢37%
- Will Republicans win Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine?37¢37%
- Will Republicans win Kansas and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?37¢37%
- Will Republicans win Maine and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas?37¢37%
- Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?37¢37%
- Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Maine and Texas?36¢36%
Recent polling averages across the seven tossup Senate contests show margins of three points or less in most states, with Democrats holding narrow leads or ties in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas while Iowa and Kansas remain virtual dead heats. This environment, shaped by a Democratic-leaning national generic ballot, economic concerns, and voter sentiment tied to the current administration, has produced high uncertainty about exactly which Republican-held seats will hold. Late-cycle shifts in individual races, turnout differentials in key demographics, and state-specific candidate dynamics keep outcomes interdependent yet unpredictable. Trader consensus therefore fragments across dozens of combinations rather than concentrating on any single set, reflecting the narrow path for Republicans to secure multiple victories amid closely contested fundamentals.
Rules
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.