- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?26¢26%
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?15¢15%
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?10¢10%
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?5¢5%
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?5¢5%
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?5¢5%
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?4¢4%
- Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?3¢3%
- Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2¢2%
- Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2¢2%
- Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2¢2%
- Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2¢2%
1%26.4%Jon Ossoff$15m Vol.
14.6%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez$16m Vol.
1%10.2%Gavin Newsom$28.7m Vol.
5.5%Pete Buttigieg$12.4m Vol.
5.4%Kamala Harris$14.8m Vol.
4.8%Josh Shapiro$10.7m Vol.
4%Andy Beshear$13.7m Vol.
3.3%Raphael Warnock$34.6m Vol.
2.5%Ro Khanna$11.9m Vol.
2.4%Wes Moore$18.8m Vol.
2.1%Mark Kelly$18.3m Vol.
2%James Talarico$12m Vol.
The fragmented Democratic field for 2028 reflects post-2024 party dynamics, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to Jon Ossoff based on his Senate tenure in a swing state and appeal across ideological factions. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez draws support from progressive fundraising networks and national visibility, while Gavin Newsom benefits from executive experience governing the largest state. Other contenders such as Pete Buttigieg and Josh Shapiro hold mid-tier positioning tied to prior national campaigns or gubernatorial records. Key differentiators include Senate versus House or state-level backgrounds, regional electoral strength, and alignment with primary voter priorities on economic policy and institutional roles. The 2026 midterms and subsequent primary calendar could consolidate backing through endorsements, early-state polling shifts, or debate performances, though no single candidate has yet established a commanding lead in trader assessments.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.