- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?46¢46%
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?17¢17%
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?14¢14%
- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?7¢7%
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?6¢6%
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2%
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2%
- Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2%
- Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2%
- Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2%
- Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1%
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1%
46.1%Marine Le Pen$5.4m Vol.
1%16.6%David Lisnard$7.8m Vol.
13.5%Jean-Luc Mélenchon$3.8m Vol.
7.4%Christine Lagarde$3.1m Vol.
2%5.5%Édouard Philippe$3.3m Vol.
2.1%Raphaël Glucksmann$3.7m Vol.
1.9%Jordan Bardella$3.8m Vol.
1.8%Dominique de Villepin$3.7m Vol.
1.8%Teddy Riner$713.4k Vol.
1.7%François Hollande$3.3m Vol.
0.7%Éric Zemmour$3.8m Vol.
0.7%Bruno Retailleau$4.1m Vol.
Marine Le Pen maintains a commanding position in the 2027 French presidential race due to consistent first-round polling leads of 30-36 percent amid voter polarization and dissatisfaction with the outgoing Macron administration. Recent surveys from Harris Interactive, Cluster17, and OpinionWay show Jean-Luc Mélenchon consolidating second place at 17-20 percent on the left, while David Lisnard has surged to 10-12 percent on the center-right, outpacing Édouard Philippe and Bruno Retailleau in tested scenarios and elevating his market standing. The splintered center and right, including multiple declared candidates such as Raphaël Glucksmann and recent announcements from Éric Zemmour and Teddy Riner, prevent any single challenger from closing the gap. Le Pen’s reduced ineligibility sentence from the Paris Court of Appeal has removed a key barrier, reinforcing trader assessments of her path through the two-round system.
Rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).