- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by November 30, 2026?2¢2%
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?8¢8%
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?34¢34%
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?54¢54%
2%November 30$10.6k Vol.
1%7.5%December 31$1.2m Vol.- 3%33.5%March 31, 2027$197.1k Vol.
- 1%53.5%June 30, 2027$83k Vol.
Russian forces seized most districts of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast during summer 2026 through sustained artillery, drone strikes, and infantry infiltration, yet Ukrainian units continue to hold positions on the northern and western outskirts, preventing full consolidation. Recent reports confirm persistent fighting, including 14 Russian assaults in the sector on November 11 with no confirmed territorial gains, alongside stalled advances west and southwest of the city. On November 12, President Putin proposed a humanitarian evacuation mission modeled on Oleshky, asserting effective control and offering a temporary pause for demining and civilian movement, though Ukrainian officials rejected the claim and warned it could enable troop rotations or propaganda gains during U.S.-mediated talks. This contested status, combined with broader Russian efforts to encircle the Donbas fortress belt and Ukrainian drone-enabled defense of remaining pockets, shapes trader assessments of timelines for complete capture amid ongoing attrition and diplomatic maneuvering.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.