- Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?17¢17%
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed August 7, 2026, by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, established a collective security framework modeled partly on NATO Article 5, committing members to treat an armed attack on one as an attack on all while promoting military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and joint exercises. Signatories have repeatedly described the pact as open to expansion, with Turkish officials and Pakistani statements citing interest from multiple Muslim-majority states. Recent activation amid Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure led to emergency coordination in October 2026, including planned force deployments and a Pakistani-led secretariat in Riyadh. Egypt publicly signaled readiness to join in mid-October, while Qatar, Iraq, Syria, and others have been floated in diplomatic commentary. Formal accession requires internal approvals and alignment on triggers, leaving trader assessments focused on whether any candidate completes the process before the market deadline amid ongoing regional security pressures.
Rules
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, or Pakistan formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and any country reported to have joined; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.