- Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?53¢
- Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026?51¢
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, or Pakistan formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and any country reported to have joined; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on 7 August 2026 by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, establishes a collective security commitment under which an armed attack on one signatory is treated as an attack on all, while explicitly remaining open to additional members. Egypt stands as the most immediate candidate, with its foreign minister stating on 13 August that Cairo is reviewing the pact “very seriously” in light of constitutional and legal obligations; Turkish officials have described Cairo as a natural partner once technical matters are resolved. Other states including Qatar, Kuwait, Bangladesh, and Syria have signaled interest or a positive stance through official statements. Key near-term variables include whether Egypt completes its internal review, any formal accession talks advance, and how the three founding members coordinate on new entrants amid ongoing regional security consultations.