- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?64¢64%
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?22¢22%
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?4¢4%
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?3¢3%
- Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?<1¢<1%
- Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?<1¢<1%
- Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?<1¢<1%
- Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?<1¢<1%
- Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?<1¢<1%
- Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?<1¢<1%
- Will Eli Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?<1¢<1%
1%64.4%Gadi Eizenkot$10.1m Vol.
1%21.8%Benjamin Netanyahu$35m Vol.
1%4.4%Avigdor Lieberman$5.6m Vol.
3.4%Naftali Bennett$5.9m Vol.
0.4%Yossi Cohen$4.7m Vol.
0.3%Amir Ohana$3.3m Vol.
0.2%Benny Gantz$2.5m Vol.
0.2%Itamar Ben Gvir$2.3m Vol.
0.2%Gideon Sa’ar$2.7m Vol.
0.2%Israel Katz$1.7m Vol.
0.2%Eli Cohen$211.1k Vol.
Gadi Eizenkot holds the initial mandate to form Israel’s next government following the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, which produced no clear majority for either major bloc. Eisenkot’s Yashar-led opposition grouping secured 48 seats while Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led religious-nationalist bloc took 53, with Arab parties gaining a record 19 seats in the 120-seat parliament. President Isaac Herzog’s consultations resulted in 67 lawmakers recommending Eisenkot for the first attempt at coalition-building, compared with 46 for Netanyahu, prompting the November 8 mandate assignment. Eisenkot now has up to 42 days to assemble at least 61 seats, with options including Arab-party support for key votes, ultra-Orthodox inclusion, or a unity arrangement. Netanyahu’s lower market price reflects the likelihood he would receive the second mandate only if Eisenkot fails. Smaller-party leaders such as Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett appear in supporting roles within their respective blocs but lack independent paths to the premiership at this stage. Coalition arithmetic and ongoing negotiations remain the dominant factors in trader assessments of the final outcome.
Rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.