Alaska Senate Election Winner
- Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?<1¢
- Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?<1¢
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?42¢
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?57¢
- Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Mary Peltola leads the 2026 Alaska Senate race at 57.5% implied probability in trader consensus, ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan at 42%, amid a competitive contest rated toss-up by multiple analysts. Peltola, who entered in January 2026 after losing her House seat in 2024, has built advantages through substantial fundraising outpacing Sullivan and strong grassroots efforts highlighted in late July. Recent polling averages show her holding a narrow edge, reflecting her prior statewide success under ranked-choice voting. Sullivan faces primary complications tomorrow from a same-name challenger, raising voter confusion concerns among Republicans. The general election in November will test these dynamics in Alaska's top-four primary system.