- Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?6¢6%
- Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?4¢4%
- Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026?3¢3%
- Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?3¢3%
- Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026?3¢3%
- Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026?2¢2%
- Will Xi Jinping purge Zhao Leji in 2026?2¢2%
- Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?2¢2%
- Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026?1¢1%
- 5.5%Dong Jun$52.3k Vol.
- 1%4.4%Li Xi$31.6k Vol.
- 3%Wang Yi$16.2k Vol.
- 2.7%Cai Qi$65k Vol.
- 2.5%Li Qiang$13.7k Vol.
- 1%2.3%Wang Huning$14.8k Vol.
- 2.3%Zhao Leji$16k Vol.
- 1.5%Zhang Shengmin$34.4k Vol.
- 1.2%Ding Xuexiang$29.6k Vol.
Recent Fifth Plenum expulsions of a record 33 Central Committee members, including 16 from the military, underscore Xi Jinping’s intensified anti-corruption drive and emphasis on party discipline through 2026. High-profile removals of figures such as former CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, Joint Staff Department Chief Liu Zhenli, Xinjiang party chief Ma Xingrui, and several defense industry executives have left the Central Military Commission with only Xi and anti-graft enforcer Zhang Shengmin. These actions follow earlier 2025-2026 purges that reduced the 20th Central Committee’s ranks substantially and targeted even Xi-aligned officials. The campaign, which disciplined hundreds of thousands in the first nine months of 2026, signals continued scrutiny ahead of the 21st Party Congress scheduled for the second half of 2027, where leadership restructuring and loyalty assessments could drive additional outcomes.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor. 2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect. A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.