- Will Angus Taylor be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?21¢
- Will Robbie Katter be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?1¢
- Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?27¢
- Will Larissa Waters be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?<1¢
- Will Jim Chalmers be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?15¢
- Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?37¢
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Australian federal politics features elevated uncertainty more than two years before the next election, scheduled by September 2028, with Labor holding a substantial majority from 2025 but trailing or tied with One Nation in multiple primary-vote surveys. Angus Taylor leads the Coalition following a 2026 leadership change, while Pauline Hanson’s party has posted strong by-election results and consistent polling gains amid voter concerns over cost of living and migration. These trends, combined with the extended timeline allowing potential leadership spills or policy shifts, keep implied probabilities clustered tightly among Albanese, Taylor, Hanson, Chalmers, and several others. Traders price in the possibility of further volatility before any party secures a clear path to forming government.