Brazil Presidential Election
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?64¢
- Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1¢
- Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?8¢
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?27¢
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1¢
- Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Lula leads trader consensus for the October 2026 first-round vote as incumbent Workers’ Party president seeking a fourth term, supported by recent policy steps including expanded debt relief for informal workers and temporary fuel subsidies. Recent August polls show him at 39–44% against Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s, with the right-wing senator hampered by June audio leaks tied to a fraud investigation and a family dispute with Michelle Bolsonaro that drew negative attention before their public reconciliation. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible due to prior convictions and imprisonment over coup-related charges, consolidating right-leaning support behind his son while fragmenting it among lower-polling contenders such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado. Scheduled debates later this month could shift momentum ahead of the October 4 ballot and potential runoff.