- Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled after the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum set a 60-day window for broader talks on the nuclear program, Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, and Lebanon de-escalation. The period expired in mid-August without a final agreement, prompting the US to shift from military action to intensified economic pressure while stating that no active negotiations are underway. Qatar’s prime minister conducted recent mediation visits to Tehran, and Iranian officials have signaled openness to renewed diplomacy conditional on US policy changes, yet no direct bilateral meetings have been confirmed for late August. Traders are assessing whether mediators or envoys from either side will convene any round by the August 31 cutoff amid these unresolved implementation gaps.