Trump out as President by August 31?
- Trump out as President by August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on the low probability of President Trump leaving office by August 31 stems from the lack of active congressional or constitutional processes that could force removal in the remaining days. No impeachment resolutions have advanced in the 119th Congress, and no cabinet-level actions have invoked the 25th Amendment. Trump's ongoing public appearances and executive schedule indicate continuity in the administration without signals of resignation or incapacity. The compressed timeline further limits any realistic path for sudden shifts, though isolated developments such as a major health event or unforeseen legal ruling could still theoretically intervene before month-end.