- Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?9¢9%
- Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?8¢8%
- Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?8¢8%
- Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?8¢8%
- Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027?6¢6%
- Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?6¢6%
- Will Israel recognize Palestine before 2027?6¢6%
- Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?5¢5%
- Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?4¢4%
- Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?4¢4%
- Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?3¢3%
Recent diplomatic momentum stems from the September 2025 wave of formal recognitions by Australia, Canada, France, the United Kingdom, and several others during UN General Assembly sessions and France-Saudi coordinated efforts on the two-state solution. As of October 2026, trader focus centers on remaining non-recognizing states such as New Zealand, Japan, the Netherlands, Germany, and Italy, with implied probabilities reflecting limited near-term catalysts. The Palestinian Authority’s postponement of scheduled elections to September 2027 has drawn expressions of regret from some recognizing governments that had conditioned steps on democratic reforms. Broader factors include ongoing UN diplomatic initiatives, regional statements on East Jerusalem status, and the absence of new major bilateral announcements in recent weeks that could shift additional Western or G20 positions before the December 2026 resolution deadline.
Rules
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.