- Will Kuwait join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?8¢8%
- Will Bahrain join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?7¢7%
- Will Qatar join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?7¢7%
- Will Lebanon join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?7¢7%
- Will Jordan join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?7¢7%
- Will Iraq join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?6¢6%
- Will Sudan join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?5¢5%
- Will Iran join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?5¢5%
- Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?5¢5%
- Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?5¢5%
- Will Yemen join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?5¢5%
- Will Somalia join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?4¢4%
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed in August 2026 by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan amid the Iran war and renewed Houthi threats in Yemen, has drawn expressions of interest from several states seeking collective security arrangements. Egyptian officials stated in mid-October that Cairo is prepared to join, building on prior R4 consultations, while Pakistan’s foreign minister noted more than six unnamed countries have signaled interest, including potential candidates such as Qatar, Bangladesh, and Syria. The pact’s activation in early October, with deployment of Turkish and Pakistani forces to Saudi Arabia, has heightened attention to expansion timelines before the December 31 deadline. Trader consensus reflects limited near-term accession prospects, given procedural requirements, differing national priorities, and the absence of completed accessions to date despite diplomatic statements.
Rules
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: - the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or - the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.