- Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by December 31?6¢6%
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels stand near 283 million barrels as of late October 2026, following large emergency exchanges tied to 2026 supply disruptions. Recent Energy Department statements explicitly rule out using Venezuelan crude for SPR refills at this time, citing its heavy gravity (API 8–16) and high sulfur content that exceed cavern specifications designed for lighter, lower-sulfur grades. Administration plans instead emphasize commercial exports of Venezuelan output to U.S. refiners and premium exchanges with domestic medium-sour crude. Production under U.S.-backed deals has risen toward 1 million barrels per day, yet quality mismatches and the November 2 DOE clarification limit near-term prospects for direct or swapped additions to the reserve. Key near-term catalysts include further exchange tenders and any policy shifts on sanctions relief.
Rules
On August 28, 2026, the United States and Venezuela announced an oil deal granting the United States access to Venezuela's crude oil reserves. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any amount of Venezuelan oil acquired under this agreement is deposited into the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying deposit must be confirmed to have been received at a US SPR storage facility and to have been sourced from Venezuela under the referenced agreement or a successor US-Venezuela oil deal. Announcements of plans or intentions to deposit Venezuelan oil into the SPR will not qualify. The deposit must be confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.