- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?5¢5%
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30, 2027?24¢24%
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2027?42¢42%
- 2%4.5%December 31, 2026$3m Vol.
- 23.5%June 30, 2027$3.1k Vol.
- 41.5%December 31, 2027$151k Vol.
US-brokered trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 marked the first direct Ukraine-Russia talks in nine months, yielding agreement in principle on a major prisoner exchange while advancing discussions on security guarantees and European security architecture. Ukrainian negotiators reported constructive progress and floated the possibility of a deal by year-end, though core gaps persist over territorial control in Donbas and eastern regions, NATO-related assurances, and any immediate ceasefire. US envoys described the sessions as productive with narrowed differences on some issues, and follow-on talks including European partners are planned. Ongoing battlefield developments, including Russian advances in Donetsk and mutual strikes on energy infrastructure, continue to shape positions ahead of further diplomatic steps.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.