- Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?3¢3%
Ukrainian presidential elections remain postponed under martial law, extended through 31 October 2026, as the constitution prohibits national votes during active hostilities with Russia. Recent U.S. pressure, including public calls for a new leader, prompted President Zelensky to state he would run if elections occur before the war ends and to propose a 60-day ceasefire to enable legislative changes, security arrangements, and voting access for troops and displaced citizens. Russia has rejected limited ceasefires in favor of a comprehensive peace agreement, while polls indicate most Ukrainians oppose wartime voting due to security risks and logistical barriers involving millions of internally displaced persons and refugees abroad. A parliamentary working group continues reviewing election rules, but no new legislation has advanced.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.