Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
- Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?9¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Ongoing clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces have prevented any sustained ceasefire, with intensified fighting reported across Kordofan and Darfur into mid-2026. International initiatives, including the Quad roadmap for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by permanent ceasefire and political transition, stalled after SAF rejection and RSF tactical acceptance without halting operations. Subsequent efforts such as the Berlin conference and AU-UN coordination have reiterated calls for de-escalation and aid access but produced no verifiable agreements amid deep mutual distrust and external support dynamics. These factors sustain low trader-implied probabilities for near-term resolution by late 2026, though further diplomatic pressure or territorial shifts could alter momentum.