- Lai Ching-te impeached by December 31?22¢22%
Taiwan’s opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, led by the KMT and TPP, remains in a constitutional standoff with President Lai Ching-te’s DPP executive over the refusal to countersign passed legislation, including revenue allocation changes and budget measures. This impasse triggered impeachment proceedings last year that reached a floor vote in May 2026 but fell short of the required two-thirds majority. Opposition lawmakers continue to press for dialogue to resolve the deadlock, while Lai’s October 2026 National Day address emphasized cross-strait tensions and defense priorities without directly addressing the domestic rift. Any renewed motion would again need supermajority legislative support before referral to the Constitutional Court, amid scheduled budget deliberations that could intensify pressure on both sides.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.