- Kash Patel out by December 31?25¢
- Kash Patel out by September 30?7¢
- Kash Patel out by August 31?1¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kash Patel serves as FBI Director following his narrow 51-49 Senate confirmation in February 2025 to a 10-year term. Trader focus on departure timing centers on earlier scrutiny over personal conduct, travel perks, and internal management that surfaced in spring 2026 reporting, alongside congressional questions on spending and absences. More recent developments include his active public role in August 2026, with statements on expanded task forces, crime statistics, and Capitol Hill appearances highlighting major investigations. No formal resignation, removal process, or administration announcement has occurred, and Patel continues official duties under President Trump. Upcoming Senate oversight or administration personnel decisions within the resolution window could influence timing, though the 10-year statutory term and historical precedent for FBI directors provide structural continuity absent new catalysts.