Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?2¢
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?10¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Israeli officials have conditioned any full withdrawal of forces from southern Lebanon on the complete disarmament of Hezbollah and the elimination of its military threat across the country, as stated by Defense Minister Israel Katz in mid-August 2026. This stance follows a June framework agreement and July pilot-zone handovers to the Lebanese army, which transferred limited areas cleared of Hezbollah infrastructure under U.S. mediation. Hezbollah has rejected deals short of an immediate, unconditional Israeli exit, while Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has pressed for a formal withdrawal timetable. Ongoing U.S.-brokered talks, including planned August sessions, continue to link phased pullbacks to Lebanese army deployment and security guarantees, leaving the pace of any broader exit dependent on verifiable disarmament progress and de-escalation.