- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?92¢92%
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?7¢7%
- Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- 91.9%Nicolás Maduro$4.1m Vol.
- 1%6.5%Delcy Rodríguez$2.6m Vol.
- 0.5%No Head of State$1.8m Vol.
- 0.2%Edmundo González$1.6m Vol.
- 0.2%María Corina Machado$1.8m Vol.
- 0.2%Marco Rubio$1.6m Vol.
- 0.2%Pete Hegseth$9.4m Vol.
The US-backed transition process in Venezuela has sustained Nicolás Maduro as the dominant outcome in trader consensus for leadership at the end of 2026, primarily because no formal declaration of presidential vacancy has occurred despite his January capture and ongoing US detention on narcotics and related charges. Delcy Rodríguez serves as interim president under a Supreme Court order, with ongoing US-supported negotiations focused first on reforming the Supreme Court and electoral council by late 2026 before any vacancy declaration that would trigger a six-month election window. This timeline, reinforced by oil-sector cooperation and opposition exclusion from core talks, leaves limited scope for resolution by December 31. Late developments such as accelerated institutional changes, a surprise vacancy declaration, or shifts in US policy could still alter the outcome before market resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.