Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?98¢
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?94¢
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?78¢
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?75¢
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?61¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Ongoing tensions between Israel, Iran, and the United States stem from the 2026 conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes in February targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites. Multiple Pakistan-mediated pauses, including the April two-week ceasefire and June Islamabad Memorandum, aimed to halt hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz under agreed navigation rules, and address Iran's nuclear and missile programs over a 60-day window. However, the truce frayed in July after Iranian actions against commercial vessels prompted resumed U.S. strikes and declarations that the ceasefire had ended. As of mid-August, Iran maintains demands for control over Hormuz transit and links broader de-escalation to Lebanon developments involving Hezbollah, while Israel remains on high alert for potential independent operations. Traders monitor these diplomatic and military signals for signs of renewed direct exchanges or sustained restraint.