- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?3¢3%
The Iranian regime's institutional resilience, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and sustained coercive capacity, underpins the 97.3% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Despite nationwide economic protests that erupted in late 2025 over rial depreciation and inflation, followed by US-Israeli strikes on leadership and nuclear sites through 2026, authorities have contained unrest through mass arrests, executions, and internet controls. Recent diplomatic maneuvering and blockade responses further signal regime continuity rather than fracture. While elite cohesion and proxy networks have weakened, verifiable developments show no imminent tipping point. Scenarios that could still shift odds include large-scale military defections, a unified opposition surge, or external strikes that trigger internal power vacuums before year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.