- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?8¢8%
Ongoing diplomatic mediation led by Qatar, combined with U.S. emphasis on economic sanctions, naval blockade enforcement, and limited airstrikes, underpins the 92.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Recent statements from President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlight that major combat operations are viewed as unnecessary while pressure campaigns continue to constrain Iranian actions, with talks focused on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief sequencing, and nuclear issues. The short timeline to year-end further limits scope for a full-scale ground operation amid a stalemate marked by periodic minor strikes and Iranian demands for preconditions before deeper negotiations.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.