- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?2¢2%
Indonesia maintains no formal diplomatic relations with Israel, conditioning any normalization on prior Israeli recognition of a sovereign Palestinian state with 1967 borders and East Jerusalem as capital. President Prabowo Subianto has signaled conditional openness, stating at the September 2025 UN General Assembly that Indonesia would recognize Israel immediately upon such acknowledgment while guaranteeing Israeli security, and he offered troops for a potential Gaza stabilization force after the 2025 ceasefire. However, recent bilateral talks with Egypt in October 2026 reaffirmed condemnation of Israeli settlements and commitment to the two-state solution, with officials explicitly ruling out Abraham Accords-style normalization absent Palestinian statehood. Domestic Islamic groups continue pressuring against perceived ties, and leaked reports of a Prabowo visit to Israel in late 2025 were denied. Trader sentiment reflects these structural barriers alongside limited diplomatic openings tied to Gaza progress or external incentives.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.