Iran leadership change by...?
- Iran leadership change by December 31?19¢
- Iran leadership change by September 30?7¢
- Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?25¢
- Iran leadership change by August 31?3¢
- Iran leadership change by November 30?14¢
- Iran leadership change by August 15?<1¢
- Iran leadership change by August 22?<1¢
- Iran leadership change by October 31?11¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with an interim council including President Masoud Pezeshkian overseeing governance until the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March. This rapid transition to regime continuity amid ongoing regional tensions and internal security challenges has shaped trader assessments of further near-term leadership shifts. Pezeshkian's public engagements with the new leader and efforts to project institutional unity, alongside limited public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei, reflect stabilization dynamics. Key variables for any additional change include escalation risks in active conflicts, potential internal factional pressures, or health-related developments, with the Assembly of Experts retaining formal authority over future selections.