- Iran leadership change by November 30?2¢2%
- Iran leadership change by December 31?7¢7%
- Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?20¢20%
- 2.3%November 30$1.1m Vol.
- 6.5%December 31$6.3m Vol.
- 2%19.5%June 30, 2027$582.8k Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, has anchored trader assessments of near-term leadership stability. The new leader has exercised authority through written decrees and private consultations with military and security officials while the country remains in a declared wartime footing, including missile exchanges and strikes on regional energy targets. A temporary leadership council involving the president, judiciary chief, and senior clerics managed the initial transition under constitutional rules requiring rapid Assembly action to avoid vacuums. Ongoing conflict dynamics, internal security appointments, and limited public appearances by the successor have reinforced consensus that removal, resignation, or effective displacement remains unlikely before mid-2027 absent major escalation or domestic upheaval. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months represent the clearest potential catalysts for shifts in de facto control.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.