- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 15?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or higher on October 15?<1¢
Persistent southeasterly winds and extensive cloud cover are moderating peak temperatures in Buenos Aires on October 15, 2026, with official forecasts from sources like the Met Office and local models pointing to a daily high near 18°C amid light showers. Spring conditions in the Southern Hemisphere typically support warming, yet this setup favors cooler maritime air advection over the city, limiting daytime heating compared to the seasonal average of about 22°C. Model consensus shows limited spread around these values, with slight variations in timing of any breaks in cloud or wind shifts creating the tight market split between 18°C and 19°C outcomes. Updated regional observations near midday will refine exact resolution as the peak window approaches.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.