- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 15?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on October 15?<1¢
Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and regional model consensus indicate a daily maximum near 29°C on October 15 under a moderate easterly flow with partial sunshine and low rain probability, supporting the overwhelming 99.6% market-implied odds for that outcome. Observed conditions, including 65-85% relative humidity and temperatures already approaching the upper 20s°C by midday, align with this expectation and historical October patterns in the region. A realistic challenge would require rapid development of persistent cloud cover or heavier showers that suppress daytime heating enough to keep the official high at or below 28°C.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.