- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or below on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on October 15?95¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on October 15?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or higher on October 15?<1¢
Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Paris of 23–24°C on October 15, 2026, under partly cloudy to clearing skies with light southerly winds and minimal precipitation. This narrow range drives the tight market split between 23°C and 24°C outcomes, as afternoon solar heating and urban heat retention push readings toward the higher end while variable high cloud cover and modest advection could cap the peak. Historical October averages near 18°C provide context, but current high-pressure dominance and clear-air radiative warming support the elevated readings. Updated afternoon observations and final daily maxima from official stations will resolve the market, with any late-day clearing likely favoring 24°C.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.