- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 15?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C or higher on October 15?<1¢
Unstable atmospheric conditions driven by a low-pressure system and developing extratropical cyclone are limiting daytime heating across São Paulo on October 15, 2026. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity—forecast by INMET and global models—are capping solar insolation and holding afternoon highs primarily in the 24–26°C range, consistent with mid-October climatology. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on rain timing that could allow brief clearer periods and slightly higher peaks near 27–28°C. Traders appear to weigh this uncertainty, assigning the strongest implied probabilities to 28°C (43.1%) and 27°C (25.5%) while discounting both cooler outcomes below 25°C and extremes above 29°C. Official updates from INMET and revised model guidance later today will further refine resolution criteria.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.