- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 41°F or below on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 42-43°F on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on October 15?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on October 15?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on October 15?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on October 15?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on October 15?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on October 15?<1¢
Official National Weather Service forecasts for Denver on October 15 project a daily maximum near 54°F under northerly winds of 9–17 mph with gusts to 28 mph and a 50% chance of morning showers that limit afternoon solar heating. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 52–55°F bins, where traders weigh model consensus on boundary-layer mixing and exact clearing timing. Cooler air advection behind a recent front, combined with Denver’s 5,280-foot elevation and typical mid-October climatology, caps warming potential while variable wind speeds and residual moisture introduce the narrow spread between 52–53°F and 54–55°F outcomes. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will refine the final recorded high before resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.