- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on October 15?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or higher on October 15?<1¢
Official forecasts from the UK Met Office and supporting models indicate a daytime maximum of 21°C for London on October 15, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with sunny intervals and only a low (10–30%) chance of light rain. This aligns with current morning observations showing temperatures climbing from the mid-teens toward an afternoon peak near 21°C, driven by mild southerly or southwesterly flow and limited cloud cover that allows sufficient solar heating for October. Historical climatology for mid-October places typical highs around 15–17°C, making today’s conditions anomalously warm due to the persistent high-pressure influence and above-average air mass temperatures. Market-implied odds favor 21°C (49.5%) over 22°C (37.5%) because ensemble guidance and official guidance show little support for exceeding 21°C, though minor upward revisions remain possible if localized heating or measurement timing pushes the peak slightly higher. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24 hours, and resolution will hinge on the official recorded maximum from standard London stations.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.