- Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?5¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Erdoğan's current term runs through 2028 under Turkey's presidential system, with the next scheduled vote in May of that year and no parliamentary mechanism in place to force an earlier contest or removal. His public statements in mid-August 2026 explicitly affirmed plans to continue serving if granted health and longevity, consistent with AKP and allied MHP positioning for his potential candidacy. Weakened opposition dynamics, including ongoing legal actions and party fragmentation, further reduce near-term pressure on the incumbent. The roughly four-month window to December 31, 2026, leaves limited scope for developments capable of altering the outcome absent a sudden, verifiable health crisis or other extraordinary event. Traders price this low-probability tail risk accordingly.