Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?5¢
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?2¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ongoing declassification of UAP records under the Trump administration's February 2026 directive has increased government transparency without producing any official confirmation of extraterrestrial life or technology. Multiple tranches released since May 8, 2026—including the fifth batch of 41 files, videos, and documents on August 7—cover historical sightings dating back decades, with some incidents remaining unexplained after review by agencies such as the Pentagon, ODNI, FBI, and NASA. These releases occur through the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) on a rolling basis, driven by congressional pressure and prior laws like the 2023 UAP Disclosure Act, yet no President, Cabinet member, Joint Chiefs official, or federal agency has issued a definitive statement affirming alien existence. Trader consensus on short-term markets (low single digits for 2026 deadlines) reflects this pattern of factual reporting on anomalies rather than resolution of their origins, with further tranches and any new AARO or congressional updates as the main near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities.