Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?20¢
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?6¢
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?42¢
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?22¢
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?5¢
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?6¢
- Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1¢
- Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?2¢
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?3¢
- Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Recent polls show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a consistent first-round lead of roughly five to ten points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, consistent with trader pricing that places the 5–10 percent margin outcome at the top. Bolsonaro’s support dipped after June audio leaks and a family dispute with Michelle Bolsonaro that drew scrutiny over campaign financing and outreach to women voters, though the pair later reconciled. Lula benefits from incumbency advantages and targeted economic measures such as expanded debt relief and temporary fuel subsidies, while other right-wing contenders including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos remain in single digits. The narrow gap in second-round simulations and ongoing economic pressures keep the race competitive within the resolution window.