Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?16¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Persistent U.S.-Iran conflict and Iranian military restrictions have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic at a small fraction of normal levels since the February 28, 2026 closure, with daily transits stuck in the low teens or single digits versus a pre-crisis average near 60-70 vessels. Recent early-August attacks on shipping, prohibitive war-risk insurance premiums, and the breakdown of the June memorandum of understanding have sustained the effective blockade into mid-August. These factors underpin the 84.5% market-implied odds against normalization by September 30, reflecting trader consensus that de-escalation sufficient for verified large-scale resumption remains unlikely within the tight timeframe. Key near-term catalysts include any renewed diplomatic talks or verified security guarantees that could alter the trajectory.