Yoon out of custody before 2027?
- Yoon out of custody before 2027?9¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Former President Yoon Suk-yeol remains in custody at the Seoul Detention Center following his February 2026 conviction and life sentence for insurrection tied to the December 2024 martial law declaration. A July 2026 two-year sentence in a separate political funding case has further extended his detention. Appeals processes continue without reported successful bail, parole, or release rulings in recent months. South Korean courts have issued additional detention warrants, including one in early 2026 extending custody by six months, reflecting the severity of the charges and procedural requirements for high-profile cases. Traders assign an overwhelming probability to continued custody through 2026, consistent with the timeline for appeals in insurrection and related proceedings and the absence of any offsetting legal or political developments that would trigger release before 2027.