- Will Lin Kuo-chang win the next Yilan County Magistrate election?66¢66%
- Will Wu Tsung-hsien win the next Yilan County Magistrate election?35¢35%
- Will Chen Wan-hui win the next Yilan County Magistrate election?2¢2%
- Will Chang Sheng-te win the next Yilan County Magistrate election?1¢1%
Lin Kuo-chang, the Democratic Progressive Party nominee, holds the leading position in trader assessments for the November 28, 2026, Yilan County magistrate election due to consistent polling advantages and high-level party mobilization. Recent campaign headquarters openings in southern Yilan drew direct endorsements from President Lai Ching-te, who pledged central government backing on infrastructure and development priorities. The opposition alliance consolidated behind Kuomintang legislator Wu Tsung-hsien following a May joint poll, reducing vote-splitting risks with former TPP figures like Chen Wan-hui, yet head-to-head surveys continue to show Lin ahead by narrow margins. Independent candidates and minor contenders register minimal support. Anti-bribery enforcement by local prosecutors and ongoing grassroots outreach by both sides sustain the competitive dynamics, with voter turnout in key townships and last-minute alliance signals likely to influence final separation among the main contenders.
Rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).