- X banned in any European country by December 31?11¢11%
Ongoing DSA enforcement actions, including the €120 million fine issued to X in December 2025 for transparency shortfalls around advertising repositories and verified accounts, have driven trader consensus toward no outright national bans by year-end. Recent escalations, such as X disabling the EU Commission's ad account in October 2026 and Irish court proceedings on Grok AI data practices, reflect continued compliance disputes and litigation rather than platform removal. US government intervention in X's court appeal underscores transatlantic pushback against extraterritorial rules, while Musk has publicly rejected withdrawal rumors. Key upcoming catalysts include General Court rulings and any new DSA risk assessments, which historically favor negotiated adjustments over bans given X's operational continuity across the bloc.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.