- Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?18¢
- Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?83¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination in an upset primary victory on August 11, 2026, narrowly defeating state Rep. Francesca Hong after suspending and then reviving his campaign with outgoing Gov. Tony Evers' endorsement. Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany won his party's nomination without significant opposition. Post-primary polls from late August show Crowley holding a modest lead over Tiffany among likely voters, consistent with Wisconsin's recent Democratic performance in statewide races for an open seat. Traders appear to view Crowley's Milwaukee County executive experience and primary momentum as positioning him as the stronger general election contender in the November contest.