- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be 3,200,000 or more?1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be less than 2,200,000?2¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?44¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000?5¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 3,000,000 and 3,200,000?5¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 2,800,000 and 3,000,000?38¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?16¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closely contested Crowley-Tiffany matchup, rated a toss-up by forecasters with recent polls showing margins under four points, anchors trader expectations for Wisconsin governor turnout near 2.6M–3M votes. An open seat in a state with elevated midterm participation and strong party mobilization on both sides sustains this clustering, as neither campaign has established a clear advantage among likely voters or independents. Primary turnout exceeded recent cycles, reflecting base engagement, while key issues such as cost of living and property taxes continue to motivate participation without yet producing decisive shifts. Developments that could separate the leading bins include sustained polling movement toward one candidate, intensified get-out-the-vote efforts targeting swing demographics, or external factors like weather and national political events that alter overall enthusiasm ahead of November 3.