Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
- Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?31¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polling ahead of the September 6, 2026, Saxony-Anhalt state election shows the AfD holding steady near 42 percent, well ahead of the CDU at around 23 percent, yet short of the vote share typically needed for an outright parliamentary majority under Germany’s mixed-member proportional system. Multiple minor parties, including the Greens, FDP, and BSW, hover near or below the 5 percent threshold, creating uncertainty over whether enough will be excluded to convert the AfD’s plurality into a seat majority. Other parties continue to maintain their firewall against any coalition involvement, while the AfD’s state branch remains under observation by domestic intelligence for right-wing extremism. These factors, combined with stable but not accelerating AfD support in the final weeks, underpin trader consensus that an absolute majority remains the less probable outcome.