- Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?4¢4%
President Trump has repeatedly threatened to remove Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors after his term as chair ended on May 15, 2026, citing policy disagreements over interest rates. Powell announced in April 2026 that he would remain as a governor through at least part of his term ending in January 2028, citing legal pressures and institutional independence concerns. Recent reporting from October 2026 indicates the administration is considering removal actions against Powell and other governors, though legal authority for such steps remains contested and untested in this context. Senate confirmation dynamics for successors and potential court challenges continue to shape the timeline, with traders monitoring administration statements and any formal steps toward dismissal.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.