- Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?8¢8%
Recent legislative action and political calendar dynamics explain the strong trader consensus favoring "No." The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in 2025, already restored full R&D expensing and delivered other corporate relief valued in the tens of billions, while extending key 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions. Treasury guidance now under development further eases corporate alternative minimum tax interactions with those deductions, providing implementation-level benefits rather than new statutory reductions. With the 2026 midterms less than three weeks away and voter attention centered on affordability, living costs, and foreign policy rather than additional tax legislation, prospects for further corporate rate cuts or major new relief before 2027 remain limited. Fiscal pressures and the narrow window before year-end also constrain near-term action. Traders therefore price a high probability that no additional corporate tax cuts will occur in the remaining period.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.