- Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?4¢4%
President Trump proposed the $5,000 "Trump dividend" in September 2026, conditioning it on Republican retention of both congressional chambers after the November 3 midterms and suggesting tariff revenue as a funding source. The plan would require new legislation for authorization and appropriations, as the Constitution assigns spending authority to Congress and prior similar pledges have not advanced. Estimated costs exceed $1.2 trillion, far outstripping projected tariff collections of roughly $200 billion annually, while adding substantially to deficits already near $2 trillion. With the March 31, 2027, resolution deadline approaching, traders assign a 94.8% implied probability to "No" given the legislative, fiscal, and timing constraints.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates a general dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment meeting the criteria below by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whether by signing federal legislation, by executive action, or by any other official mechanism. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad segment of individual US taxpayers. A payment is "broad" if eligibility for it extends to at least a majority (50%) of U.S. individual taxpayers, or if eligibility is limited only by general income thresholds and/or household or filing status rather than by any narrower category. The payment must be established as a new, distinct dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment. A payment structured as a new refundable tax credit, an advance payment of a new credit, or a direct disbursement by the Treasury will qualify, regardless of the legal mechanism used to deliver it. An increase to, expansion of, or acceleration of a tax credit, deduction, or refund that existed as of market creation, will not qualify. Once a qualifying law or executive action has been created within the market's time frame, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later repealed, enjoined, or never results in any payment actually being made. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, supported where available by official information from the U.S. government.