- Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?2¢
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Republican control of Congress following the 2024 elections has created strong structural barriers to impeachment proceedings against President Trump through the end of 2026. With the House majority unlikely to pursue charges against a president from its own party absent extraordinary bipartisan consensus, trader consensus reflects historical patterns where intra-party removals remain rare. The 2026 midterm elections introduce some uncertainty around potential shifts in House composition, yet current polling and structural factors limit prospects for a Democratic majority sufficient to advance articles of impeachment. Late-breaking developments such as major scandals, legal rulings, or unexpected coalition fractures could still alter the trajectory before year-end.