- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by December 31?14¢14%
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, enabling use of the budget reconciliation process to advance spending, revenue, and debt-limit measures with a simple majority rather than the usual 60 votes. Prior packages, including the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the June 2026 Secure America Act for border enforcement, have already consumed two of the three annual reconciliation tracks available under Senate rules. A House-passed $95 billion framework in July 2026 covering farm aid, defense, and election integrity measures has faced delays in the Senate due to internal GOP disagreements over specific provisions. A new FY2027 budget resolution introduced in August could unlock further instructions, with traders watching the lame-duck session after the November midterms as a potential window for action before any shift in chamber control.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.