- Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? 76¢76%
The Philippine Senate impeachment court’s recent decisions have shaped trader assessments of conviction odds for Vice President Sara Duterte. Prosecutors withdrew three of four articles on October 13, narrowing the case to unexplained wealth while asserting that presented evidence on asset disclosures and financial records remains sufficient for removal. Earlier Senate rulings lowered the two-thirds threshold to 14 votes among the roughly 20 participating senator-judges after excluding four absent allies, a change upheld by the Supreme Court. Defense presentation is scheduled to begin November 9, with the trial recessed for budget deliberations. These procedural shifts, combined with the Marcos-aligned majority’s control of the chamber and the permanent disqualification risk tied to any guilty verdict, underpin the current implied probability that conviction will occur before resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte. The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.